Frequently Asked Questions

PROBLAY is an NFL player-prop analytics platform. It models the probability of player-prop outcomes, compares those probabilities with sportsbook pricing, and surfaces the difference so you can evaluate the numbers for yourself.

PROBLAY also builds parlay ideas from qualified props, taking into account how the legs work together rather than simply stacking individual props.

No. PROBLAY is an information and analytics platform. It does not accept or place wagers, hold or transmit wagering funds, or act as a party to any bet.

PROBLAY currently supports six player-prop markets:

• Passing Yards
• Passing Touchdowns
• Rushing Yards
• Receiving Yards
• Receptions
• Anytime TD

The first five are Over/Under markets. Anytime TD is a binary event market — see the Props section below for how it reads differently.

Start with your Dashboard. It gives you a snapshot of the week's games, qualified props, Market Edge, parlay ideas and any parlays you've previously saved.

FREE accounts receive real PROBLAY data here — you do not need PRO just to see how PROBLAY works.

PROBLAY Probability is our model's estimated probability that the displayed side of a qualified player prop will hit — an Over, an Under, or, for Anytime TD, Yes.

For example, if an Over shows:

the model estimates an 84% probability of that Over occurring.

It is a model estimate, not a guarantee or prediction of certainty.

When PROBLAY captures both sides of a market, it can remove the sportsbook's built-in pricing margin, or vig, and calculate a normalized Market Probability.

That gives you a cleaner comparison between the market's pricing and PROBLAY's modeled probability.

When both sides of a market aren't available for a no-vig calculation, PROBLAY may instead display FanDuel Implied.

That's the probability implied directly by the FanDuel price and includes the sportsbook's vig.

When this happens, PROBLAY labels it accordingly rather than presenting it as a no-vig Market Probability.

It depends on the pricing data available when that prop was collected.

If PROBLAY has both sides of the market, it can calculate a no-vig Market Probability. If not, it uses the raw FanDuel-implied probability and labels it FanDuel Implied.

Single-sided markets always show FanDuel Implied. Anytime TD, for example, prices only one side (Yes), so a no-vig calculation isn't possible — and PROBLAY never fabricates one.

Market Edge is the difference between PROBLAY Probability and the comparison probability shown for the market.

For example:

The model's probability is eight percentage points higher than the market comparison.

Market Edge is measured in percentage points, not yards, receptions, odds or expected profit.

Market Edge shows where PROBLAY and the sportsbook disagree. It is not an advantage over the sportsbook or a prediction that a prop will win.

Yes.

A negative Market Edge simply means PROBLAY's modeled probability is lower than the market comparison.

For example:

That is useful information too. PROBLAY isn't designed to hide disagreement just because the disagreement doesn't favor the selected side.

They're completely different measurements.

Projection is expressed in the units of the prop — such as yards or receptions.

Market Edge is the difference between two probabilities and is expressed in percentage points.

So a projection of 82.4 yards vs. a 74.5-yard line is not the same thing as a +6.2-point Market Edge.

Model Qualified means the prediction has cleared PROBLAY's evidence requirements to be displayed.

Among other safeguards, PROBLAY evaluates the quality and freshness of the underlying information and whether the modeled probability falls within an evidence-backed range.

It does not mean PROBLAY is recommending that you bet the prop.

Yes — and that's intentional.

Model qualification and Market Edge answer two different questions:

Model Qualified: Do we have enough confidence in the underlying analysis to show this prediction?

Market Edge: How does our probability compare with the market?

A prop can clear the first test while PROBLAY's probability remains below the market's probability.

PRO users can expand the Full Breakdown to see more of what contributed to the model projection, including factors such as:

• Baseline
• Recent Form
• Usage
• Opponent
• Injury

You'll also see the final Model Projection.

These components help explain why the model arrived where it did. They aren't individual betting signals.

They show whether an adjustment supports or opposes the selected side of the prop.

That's important: green doesn't simply mean a number increased, and red doesn't simply mean it decreased. The direction is interpreted relative to the Over or Under being evaluated.

Anytime TD is a binary event market. The displayed side is Yes, shown with the sportsbook price — there is no Over/Under line or threshold.

PROBLAY models the probability that the player scores a touchdown, based on the rushing and receiving touchdown evidence available to the system.

Because there is no line, an Anytime TD card shows no projection-vs-line comparison, and its comparison probability is always FanDuel Implied (the market is single-sided, so no no-vig Market Probability can be calculated).

Everything else reads the same way: PROBLAY Probability is the model's estimate that Yes hits, and Market Edge is the difference between that estimate and the comparison probability.

PROBLAY may show additional context when the underlying analysis deserves extra caution — for example, limited recent history, changing usage, a developing role or a wider-than-usual range of outcomes.

Those notes are shown to both FREE and PRO users.

PROBLAY evaluates games at four points leading up to kickoff:

• Early Look — approximately 144 hours before kickoff
• Midweek Update — approximately 72 hours before kickoff
• Gameday — approximately 7 hours before kickoff
• Final Pregame — approximately 2.5 hours before kickoff

Final Pregame is the authoritative pregame checkpoint.

Each prop includes its checkpoint and an elapsed-time indicator such as Updated 34m ago.

The checkpoint tells you which pregame update recorded the current price, and the elapsed time tells you how long ago that price was recorded. A prop can still carry an earlier checkpoint simply because its price hasn't changed since then.

Yes.

Sportsbook pricing, player information and other inputs can change as kickoff approaches. PROBLAY reevaluates the available information, so probabilities, edges, qualification status and the props surfaced to customers can change between updates.

PROBLAY starts with candidate legs that cleared its research-integrity requirements and evaluates potential combinations rather than simply stacking whichever props have the largest individual numbers.

Before combining legs from the same game, PROBLAY checks its relationship evidence for that pair and only combines them when the evidence supports it. Legs from different games are treated as independent.

The Parlay Board offers three ambition profiles — Balanced, Aggressive, and Longshot — plus a Same Game mode. A profile changes which prices and payout targets are considered; the research-integrity standards are the same for all three.

The result is a parlay idea for you to evaluate, not a recommended wager.

Each idea on the Parlay Board carries a Research Score out of 100 — a measure of how strongly the idea stands out for further research, based on model disagreement, research integrity, price fit, freshness, relationship evidence, and combined-odds fit.

It is not the probability the parlay will win, a confidence percentage, an expected profit, or a recommendation. The More Info panel on each idea shows how each component contributed.

For most combinations, yes.

A combined probability multiplies each leg's PROBLAY probability, which assumes the legs are independent of one another. PROBLAY uses a relationship-adjusted probability in one narrow case only: a two-leg combination from the same game, when its relationship evidence supports an adjustment.

For three or more legs, and for legs from different games, the combined probability is the multiplied, independence-based estimate. That estimate hasn't been validated for parlays of three or more legs.

No. FREE and PRO use the same underlying research model.

Dashboard Ideas and the Parlay Board are built with different construction and scoring methods. Dashboard Ideas are 4-, 5- and 6-leg combinations of Model Qualified props; the Parlay Board builds ideas for each profile and for Same Game mode. Dashboard Ideas aren't a preview of the board's top ideas.

FREE accounts see up to 3 parlay ideas on the Dashboard. PRO unlocks the full Parlay Board with up to 12 ideas and the ability to save new parlays.

Yes. Parlay ideas are generated from the current qualified opportunities, so they can change as the underlying data changes.

A Saved Parlay is a snapshot of the PROBLAY parlay idea at the time you saved it.

It does not continually change as the model or sportsbook prices change later.

No.

Saving a parlay inside PROBLAY simply saves the research idea. PROBLAY does not place a wager with FanDuel or any other sportsbook.

Yes. Any signed-in account can view and manage its existing Saved Parlays.

Creating a new Saved Parlay requires PRO.

FREE is a real PROBLAY experience — not a blank demo.

You get the Dashboard, current qualified-prop previews, Dashboard parlay ideas, PROBLAY Probability, Market Edge, the week's games, quality notes and access to your existing Saved Parlays.

Currently, the Dashboard can surface up to 10 qualified props and 3 parlay ideas for FREE users.

PRO unlocks:

• Full Props Board — every currently eligible qualified prop
• Full Parlay Board — up to 12 parlay ideas
• Full Breakdown — deeper explanation of model adjustments
• Save New Parlays

The underlying research model isn't weakened for FREE users. PRO primarily gives you more access and more detail.

No.

A FREE account requires no credit card.

Yes. The monthly PRO plan currently includes a 7-day free trial for eligible accounts.

A payment method is required to start the trial. Unless canceled before the trial ends, it automatically continues at $9.99/month.

The trial is available once per account.

Annual PRO is currently $39.99/year.

There is no free trial on Annual PRO. It is charged today and renews annually until canceled.

Your account returns to FREE when your paid access ends.

You don't lose your PROBLAY account. You'll still have the FREE Dashboard and can view/manage Saved Parlays you've already created.

No.

PROBLAY provides analytics and research information. Model Qualified tells you that an analysis met PROBLAY's evidence requirements, while Market Edge tells you how the model's probability compares with the market.

Neither guarantees what will happen in the game.

No.

Sports outcomes are uncertain. PROBLAY does not guarantee betting outcomes, winnings or financial results. Any decision you make based on PROBLAY — including whether to wager — is your responsibility.

PROBLAY itself is an analytics service, not a sportsbook. If you choose to use its information in connection with sports wagering, you're responsible for complying with the laws applicable where you are and using appropriately licensed providers.