Frequently Asked Questions

PROBLAY is an NFL player-prop analytics platform. It models the probability of player-prop outcomes, compares those probabilities with sportsbook pricing, and surfaces the difference so you can evaluate the numbers for yourself.

PROBLAY also builds parlay ideas from qualified props, taking into account how the legs work together rather than simply stacking individual props.

No. PROBLAY is an information and analytics platform. It does not accept or place wagers, hold or transmit wagering funds, or act as a party to any bet.

PROBLAY currently supports five player-prop markets:

• Passing Yards
• Passing Touchdowns
• Rushing Yards
• Receiving Yards
• Receptions

Start with your Dashboard. It gives you a snapshot of the week's games, qualified props, Market Edge, parlay ideas and any parlays you've previously saved.

FREE accounts receive real PROBLAY data here — you do not need PRO just to see how PROBLAY works.

PROBLAY Probability is our model's estimated probability that the displayed side of a qualified player prop — Over or Under — will hit.

For example, if an Over shows:

the model estimates an 84% probability of that Over occurring.

It is a model estimate, not a guarantee or prediction of certainty.

When PROBLAY captures both sides of a market, it can remove the sportsbook's built-in pricing margin, or vig, and calculate a normalized Market Probability.

That gives you a cleaner comparison between the market's pricing and PROBLAY's modeled probability.

When both sides of a market aren't available for a no-vig calculation, PROBLAY may instead display FanDuel Implied.

That's the probability implied directly by the FanDuel price and includes the sportsbook's vig.

When this happens, PROBLAY labels it accordingly rather than presenting it as a no-vig Market Probability.

It depends on the pricing data available when that prop was collected.

If PROBLAY has both sides of the market, it can calculate a no-vig Market Probability. If not, it uses the raw FanDuel-implied probability and labels it FanDuel Implied.

Market Edge is the difference between PROBLAY Probability and the comparison probability shown for the market.

For example:

The model's probability is eight percentage points higher than the market comparison.

Market Edge is measured in percentage points, not yards, receptions, odds or expected profit.

Yes.

A negative Market Edge simply means PROBLAY's modeled probability is lower than the market comparison.

For example:

That is useful information too. PROBLAY isn't designed to hide disagreement just because the disagreement doesn't favor the selected side.

They're completely different measurements.

Projection is expressed in the units of the prop — such as yards or receptions.

Market Edge is the difference between two probabilities and is expressed in percentage points.

So a projection of 82.4 yards vs. a 74.5-yard line is not the same thing as a +6.2-point Market Edge.

Model Qualified means the prediction has cleared PROBLAY's evidence requirements to be displayed.

Among other safeguards, PROBLAY evaluates the quality and freshness of the underlying information and whether the modeled probability falls within an evidence-backed range.

It does not mean PROBLAY is recommending that you bet the prop.

Yes — and that's intentional.

Model qualification and Market Edge answer two different questions:

Model Qualified: Do we have enough confidence in the underlying analysis to show this prediction?

Market Edge: How does our probability compare with the market?

A prop can clear the first test while PROBLAY's probability remains below the market's probability.

PRO users can expand the Full Breakdown to see more of what contributed to the model projection, including factors such as:

• Baseline
• Recent Form
• Usage
• Opponent
• Injury

You'll also see the final Model Projection.

These components help explain why the model arrived where it did. They aren't individual betting signals.

They show whether an adjustment supports or opposes the selected side of the prop.

That's important: green doesn't simply mean a number increased, and red doesn't simply mean it decreased. The direction is interpreted relative to the Over or Under being evaluated.

PROBLAY may show additional context when the underlying analysis deserves extra caution — for example, limited recent history, changing usage, a developing role or a wider-than-usual range of outcomes.

Those notes are shown to both FREE and PRO users.

PROBLAY evaluates games at four points leading up to kickoff:

• Early Look — approximately 144 hours before kickoff
• Midweek Update — approximately 72 hours before kickoff
• Gameday — approximately 7 hours before kickoff
• Final Pregame — approximately 2.5 hours before kickoff

Final Pregame is the authoritative pregame checkpoint.

Each prop includes its checkpoint and an elapsed-time indicator such as Updated 34m ago.

That lets you distinguish an Early Look from a much more recent Final Pregame analysis.

Yes.

Sportsbook pricing, player information and other inputs can change as kickoff approaches. PROBLAY reevaluates the available information, so probabilities, edges, qualification status and the props surfaced to customers can change between updates.

PROBLAY starts with Model Qualified candidate legs and evaluates potential combinations rather than simply stacking whichever props have the largest individual numbers.

The engine accounts for relationships between legs when estimating the probability of a combination.

The result is a parlay idea for you to evaluate, not a recommended wager.

Not when the necessary relationship information is available.

PROBLAY prefers a correlation-adjusted combined probability rather than assuming every leg behaves independently. The simpler independent calculation is used only as a fallback when an adjusted probability isn't available.

No.

FREE and PRO use the same underlying parlay engine.

FREE accounts can preview up to 3 parlay ideas on the Dashboard. PRO unlocks the full Parlay Board with up to 12 ideas and the ability to save new parlays.

Yes. Parlay ideas are generated from the current qualified opportunities, so they can change as the underlying data changes.

A Saved Parlay is a snapshot of the PROBLAY parlay idea at the time you saved it.

It does not continually change as the model or sportsbook prices change later.

No.

Saving a parlay inside PROBLAY simply saves the research idea. PROBLAY does not place a wager with FanDuel or any other sportsbook.

Yes. Any signed-in account can view and manage its existing Saved Parlays.

Creating a new Saved Parlay requires PRO.

FREE is a real PROBLAY experience — not a blank demo.

You get the Dashboard, current qualified-prop previews, parlay previews, PROBLAY Probability, Market Edge, the week's games, quality notes and access to your existing Saved Parlays.

Currently, the Dashboard can surface up to 10 qualified props and 3 parlay ideas for FREE users.

PRO unlocks:

• Full Props Board — up to 30 qualified props
• Full Parlay Board — up to 12 parlay ideas
• Full Breakdown — deeper explanation of model adjustments
• Save New Parlays

The underlying model and parlay engine aren't intentionally weakened for FREE users. PRO primarily gives you more access and more detail.

No.

A FREE account requires no credit card.

Yes. The monthly PRO plan currently includes a 7-day free trial for eligible accounts.

A payment method is required to start the trial. Unless canceled before the trial ends, it automatically continues at $9.99/month.

The trial is available once per account.

Annual PRO is currently $39.99/year.

There is no trial on the annual plan; it is charged immediately and renews annually unless canceled.

Your account returns to FREE when your paid access ends.

You don't lose your PROBLAY account. You'll still have the FREE Dashboard and can view/manage Saved Parlays you've already created.

No.

PROBLAY provides analytics and research information. Model Qualified tells you that an analysis met PROBLAY's evidence requirements, while Market Edge tells you how the model's probability compares with the market.

Neither guarantees what will happen in the game.

No.

Sports outcomes are uncertain. PROBLAY does not guarantee betting outcomes, winnings or financial results. Any decision you make based on PROBLAY — including whether to wager — is your responsibility.

PROBLAY itself is an analytics service, not a sportsbook. If you choose to use its information in connection with sports wagering, you're responsible for complying with the laws applicable where you are and using appropriately licensed providers.