PROBLAY • RESULTS CENTER
2026 NFL Week 1 Research Results
The published Week 1 record for PROBLAY's stored Final Pregame-labeled Over/Under research, with the deduplicated view, the predicted-versus-observed difference, and the limitations that apply to the sample. It is an early prospective audit of stored research, not proof of model quality.
- Published
- Period covered
- 2026 NFL Week 1
This report uses frozen pre-kickoff data: the prices and model probabilities stored at the Final Pregame checkpoint before each game started. Nothing was added, removed, or re-priced after kickoff, and the report is not updated after publication.
Population measured
Stored Final Pregame-Labeled Model Qualified Over/Under Research
Everything below measures exactly that population for the 2026 NFL regular season, Week 1 — the propositions stored with a Final Pregame checkpoint label that met PROBLAY's model qualification rules for Over/Under player markets before kickoff.
Raw record
Raw record: 53 wins, 10 losses, 0 pushes
- Raw propositions
- 63
- Observed rate
- 84.1%
- Average model probability
- 84.5%
- Distinct players
- 48
- Games represented
- 16 of 16 games represented
- Voids / unresolved
- 0 voids, 0 unresolved
Every stored proposition in the population is counted once, including several alternate lines for the same player and market.
Deduplicated record
Deduplicated record: 42 wins, 9 losses
- Player-market propositions
- 51
- Observed rate
- 82.4%
- Distinct players
- 48
- Lowest-line sensitivity result
- 43 wins, 8 losses
One proposition per player, game, market and direction. The representative line is selected by implied probability closest to 50%, without using outcomes. The lowest-line sensitivity result beside it applies that same one-per-player-market rule with the lowest stored line selected instead, so the deduplicated record can be read against a different line-selection rule.
Predicted vs observed
Predicted versus observed: minus 0.4 percentage points
- Average model probability
- 84.5%
- Observed rate
- 84.1%
Across the stored sample the observed rate came in 0.4 percentage points below the average model probability. A difference that small in a single recorded week is not evidence that the model is calibrated, accurate, or matched to the market: it is a description of this recorded week, not a correction factor and not a forecast.
Every qualified Week 1 O/U proposition came from alternate-line markets, so the raw propositions are not independent. One week is an early sample and nothing should be presented as an expected future rate. This is an early prospective audit of stored research, not proof of model quality.
Methodology
What the population is
A proposition is in this report only if it was stored with a Final Pregame checkpoint label and met PROBLAY's model qualification rules for an Over/Under player market before kickoff. The stored line, direction and model probability are the ones captured at that checkpoint.
How wins and losses are counted
Each proposition is resolved against the stored line and direction using the final game result. Week 1 produced 0 pushes, 0 voids and 0 unresolved propositions, so all 63 raw propositions are graded.
Why a deduplicated view is shown
Alternate-line markets mean one player and market can appear several times in the raw population. The deduplicated view keeps one proposition per player, game, market and direction, selecting the representative line by implied probability closest to 50% and never by outcome.
How this report is compared with another week
Weeks are reported separately and shown side by side. PROBLAY does not publish a combined, running or cumulative record across weeks, because the propositions inside each week are correlated rather than independent and each week is a separate recorded sample.
Limitations
- Every qualified Week 1 O/U proposition came from alternate-line markets, so the raw propositions are not independent.
- Stored checkpoint coverage was approximately 42.74% of the live lines measured that week.
- This is a recorded sample, not the complete Final Pregame market.
- These propositions come from FanDuel alternate-line ladders, which the book offers Over-only by construction — an opposing side at the same threshold was never offered, so a no-vig probability cannot be derived for this population. Prices shown are raw implied.
- All 16 games are represented, but not evenly: the raw propositions are concentrated in a minority of games, so game coverage should not be read as uniform.
- Anytime Touchdown research is evaluated separately and must not be blended into this record.
- This is an early prospective audit of stored research, not proof of model quality.
- One week is an early sample and nothing should be presented as an expected future rate.
About this report
← Back to the Results CenterResearch and analysis only. PROBLAY is not a sportsbook and does not accept wagers.