PROBLAY • RESULTS CENTER
2026 NFL Week 2 Research Results
The published Week 2 record for PROBLAY's stored Final Pregame-labeled Over/Under research, with the deduplicated view, the predicted-versus-observed difference, and the limitations that apply to the sample.
- Published
- Period covered
- 2026 NFL Week 2
This report uses frozen pre-kickoff data: the prices and model probabilities stored at the Final Pregame checkpoint before each game started. Nothing was added, removed, or re-priced after kickoff, and the report is not updated after publication.
Population measured
Stored Final Pregame-Labeled Model Qualified Over/Under Research
Everything below measures exactly that population for the 2026 NFL regular season, Week 2 — the propositions stored with a Final Pregame checkpoint label that met PROBLAY's model qualification rules for Over/Under player markets before kickoff.
Raw record
Raw record: 41 wins, 14 losses, 0 pushes
- Raw propositions
- 55
- Observed rate
- 74.5%
- Average model probability
- 83.6%
- Distinct players
- 43
- Games represented
- 14 of 16 games represented
- Voids / unresolved
- 0 voids, 0 unresolved
Every stored proposition in the population is counted once, including several alternate lines for the same player and market.
Deduplicated record
Deduplicated record: 33 wins, 12 losses
- Player-market propositions
- 45
- Observed rate
- 73.3%
- Distinct players
- 43
- Lowest-line sensitivity result
- 34 wins, 11 losses
One proposition per player, game, market and direction. The representative line is selected by implied probability closest to 50%, without using outcomes. The lowest-line sensitivity result beside it applies that same one-per-player-market rule with the lowest stored line selected instead, so the deduplicated record can be read against a different line-selection rule.
Predicted vs observed
Predicted versus observed: minus 9.1 percentage points
- Average model probability
- 83.6%
- Observed rate
- 74.5%
Across the stored sample the model over-predicted by 9.1 percentage points: the observed rate came in that far below the average model probability. That is a description of this recorded week, not a correction factor and not a forecast.
Every qualified Week 2 O/U proposition came from alternate-line markets, so the raw propositions are not independent. Two weeks is an early sample and nothing should be presented as an expected future rate.
Observed results by model probability band
Both bands are drawn from the same 55 stored propositions, and alternate lines for one player and market can land in the same band, so the rows are correlated rather than independent samples.
| Model probability band | Propositions | Wins–losses | Observed rate | Average model probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% to under 85% | 41 | 28 wins, 13 losses | 68.3% | 82.5% |
| Above 85% | 14 | 13 wins, 1 loss | 92.9% | 86.9% |
Methodology
What the population is
A proposition is in this report only if it was stored with a Final Pregame checkpoint label and met PROBLAY's model qualification rules for an Over/Under player market before kickoff. The stored line, direction and model probability are the ones captured at that checkpoint.
How wins and losses are counted
Each proposition is resolved against the stored line and direction using the final game result. Week 2 produced 0 pushes, 0 voids and 0 unresolved propositions, so all 55 raw propositions are graded.
Why a deduplicated view is shown
Alternate-line markets mean one player and market can appear several times in the raw population. The deduplicated view keeps one proposition per player, game, market and direction, selecting the representative line by implied probability closest to 50% and never by outcome.
How this report is compared with another week
Weeks are reported separately and shown side by side. PROBLAY does not publish a combined, running or cumulative record across weeks, because the propositions inside each week are correlated rather than independent and each week is a separate recorded sample.
Limitations
- Every qualified Week 2 O/U proposition came from alternate-line markets, so the raw propositions are not independent.
- Stored checkpoint coverage was approximately 40.94% of the live lines measured that week.
- This is a recorded sample, not the complete Final Pregame market.
- These propositions come from FanDuel alternate-line ladders, which the book offers Over-only by construction — an opposing side at the same threshold was never offered, so a no-vig probability cannot be derived for this population. Prices shown are raw implied.
- Anytime Touchdown research is evaluated separately and must not be blended into this record.
- Two weeks is an early sample and nothing should be presented as an expected future rate.
Week 1 compared with Week 2
Week 1 and Week 2 are reported from the same population: Stored Final Pregame-Labeled Model Qualified Over/Under Research. The columns are read side by side and never added together, because the propositions inside each week are correlated rather than independent and the two weeks are separate recorded samples.
| Measure | Week 1 | Week 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Raw record | 53 wins, 10 losses | 41 wins, 14 losses |
| Raw propositions | 63 | 55 |
| Average model probability | 84.5% | 83.6% |
| Observed rate | 84.1% | 74.5% |
| Deduplicated record | 42 wins, 9 losses | 33 wins, 12 losses |
| Deduplicated player-market propositions | 51 | 45 |
Week 2 was materially less calibrated than Week 1. In Week 1 the average model probability and the observed rate were close to each other; in Week 2 the observed rate finished 9.1 percentage points below the average model probability. Week 2 is published here unchanged, with no reweighting, no exclusions and no restatement of Week 1.
Published Week 1 caveat:One week of data is an early sample. Alternate-line ladders mean the 63 propositions are not 63 independent player predictions. Results are presented for model evaluation and should not be interpreted as an expected future hit rate.
About this report
← Back to the Results CenterResearch and analysis only. PROBLAY is not a sportsbook and does not accept wagers.