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How to Use Props

From a full board to the props worth investigating.

The Props Board shows the player props that cleared PROBLAY's evidence requirements this week. This guide walks through how to find, narrow, compare, and evaluate them — reading the numbers together instead of chasing a single one.

Step 1 — Find

Start with the board.

The Props Board lists every currently Model Qualified player prop for this week's games, across five supported markets: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Rushing Yards, Receiving Yards, Receptions.

The full board — up to 30 qualified props — is a PRO feature. FREE accounts see a smaller preview on the Dashboard, not the full Props Board.

Every card shows the same fields, in the same order:

  • Player, market, and matchup
  • Side, line, and odds — e.g. Over 64.5 (-110)
  • PROBLAY Probability
  • Market Probability or FanDuel Implied
  • Market Edge
  • Projection vs. Line
  • A Model Qualified badge, plus a strength label
  • Checkpoint and freshness (e.g. Midweek Update, Updated 34m ago)

Not sure what any of these mean? See Understanding the Numbers for the full definitions — this guide is about using the board, not defining its terms.

Sample Player

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

Receiving Yards

Over 64.5

PROBLAY Probability

84%

Market Probability

76%

Market Edge

+8.0pts

Model QualifiedMidweek UpdateUpdated 34m ago

Illustrative example. Not a live prop or a recommendation.

Step 2 — Narrow

Narrow the board.

The board has five dropdown filters and one search box, all applied together:

  • Game — narrow to one matchup
  • Team — narrow to one team's players
  • Market — one of the five supported markets
  • Side — Over or Under
  • Strength — High, Medium, or Standard
  • Search player — a text box for a player's name

These filters narrow the list — they don't reorder it. There's no separate sort control: the board keeps the same order it loaded in, minus whatever the active filters exclude. If nothing matches your filters, the board says so plainly rather than showing stale results.

Step 3 — Compare

Compare the numbers.

Does a higher PROBLAY Probability always mean a bigger edge?

No. Market Edge compares PROBLAY Probability to the market's own probability — two props can rank differently on each one. Two illustrative props, side by side:

Prop A

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

PROBLAY Probability

84%

Market Probability

76%

Market Edge

+8.0pts

Projection vs. Line

+13.7yds

Prop B

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

PROBLAY Probability

87%

Market Probability

88%

Market Edge

-1.0pts

Projection vs. Line

+8.2yds

Prop B has the higher PROBLAY Probability (87% vs. 84%) — but the market agrees with it almost exactly (88%), so its Market Edge is actually negative. Prop A's model estimate is lower, but it disagrees with the market by more, giving it the larger edge. Reading PROBLAY Probability alone would have picked the wrong one to look closer at.

Both are Model Qualified. A negative Market Edge is valid information, not an error — see Understanding the Numbers for why.

Step 4 — Open Why

Open Why.

Every prop card has a Full breakdown toggle. Opening it shows the itemized components behind the Model Projection:

Color indicates support for the selected side

  • Baseline61.4
  • Recent form+4.1 ↑
  • Usage+2.8 ↑
  • OpponentSteady
  • Injury (Questionable)-0.1 ↓
  • Model Projection78.2

The color and arrow on each row show whether that factor supports or opposes the side you selected — Over or Under — not the raw direction of the underlying stat. On an Under, a negative adjustment would show as supportive (green), the reverse of what it means on an Over.

For a small number of props, PROBLAY shows a short note instead of an itemized breakdown — that's expected, not missing data.

Illustrative example. Not a live prop or a recommendation.

Step 5 — Check Context

Check the context.

Before evaluating the prop, run through what else the card is telling you:

  • Freshness — how long ago was this priced (e.g. Updated 34m ago)?
  • Checkpoint — Early Look, Midweek Update, Gameday, or Final Pregame?
  • Quality note — is there a caveat, like limited recent history or unstable usage?
  • Why — is the breakdown mostly supportive, mixed, or opposing?
  • Projection — how does the model's projection compare to the line?

A later checkpoint isn't automatically "better" than an earlier one — it simply reflects newer inputs. Final Pregame is the authoritative pregame checkpoint, but Early Look, Midweek Update, and Gameday are each real evaluations at that point in time, not drafts.

Step 6 — Evaluate

Evaluate the whole picture.

Putting it together, in order, for one illustrative card:

Sample Player

Receiving Yards — Over 64.5

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

PROBLAY Probability

84%

Market Probability

76%

Market Edge

+8.0pts

Model QualifiedMidweek UpdateUpdated 34m ago

Illustrative example. Not a live prop or a recommendation.

  1. 1

    What's the prop?

    Sample Player, Receiving Yards — Over 64.5.

  2. 2

    How strong is PROBLAY's estimate?

    84% PROBLAY Probability.

  3. 3

    How does that compare to the market?

    76% Market Probability.

  4. 4

    What's the edge, and which direction?

    +8.0 pts, favoring the Over.

  5. 5

    What does Why say?

    Mostly supportive — Recent form and Usage support the Over; Opponent is close to steady.

  6. 6

    How fresh, and at what checkpoint?

    Midweek Update, updated 34 minutes ago.

  7. 7

    Does anything here change how much weight you put on it?

    No quality note on this one — nothing to discount.

That tells you what PROBLAY sees. It does not tell you that the outcome is certain, and it does not instruct you to place a wager — the final decision about any prop is yours.

Common Misreads

Reading it wrong is easy. Here's what to watch for.

Misread

Model Qualified means this is a good prop to act on.

Better read

Model Qualified only means the prediction cleared PROBLAY's evidence requirements to be displayed — it says nothing about whether the edge is positive.

Misread

A higher PROBLAY Probability always means a bigger Market Edge.

Better read

Market Edge compares PROBLAY Probability to the market's own probability. If the market agrees just as strongly, a higher PROBLAY Probability can still mean a smaller — or negative — edge.

Misread

Green in the Why breakdown means that stat went up.

Better read

Color shows whether that factor supports or opposes the side you're viewing (Over or Under) — not the raw statistical direction of the number itself.

Misread

A later checkpoint (like Gameday) is always more accurate than an earlier one.

Better read

A later checkpoint reflects newer inputs, not a guaranteed improvement. Final Pregame is the authoritative pregame checkpoint, but every checkpoint is a real evaluation at that point in time.

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