Know what the numbers are telling you.

Before interpreting probabilities or edge, understand exactly which outcome PROBLAY is evaluating.

• The market is Receiving Yards.
• The selected side is Over.
• The sportsbook line is 64.5 yards.

Illustrative example. Not a live prop or a recommendation.

PROBLAY Probability is the model's estimated probability that the displayed side of a qualified player prop — Over or Under — will hit.

For this illustrative Over 64.5 example, the model estimates an 84% probability of the Over occurring.

• It's a model estimate, not certainty.
• It's not derived from sportsbook odds.
• It's the same underlying probability concept for FREE and PRO.

This section covers both labels you might see — they mean different things.

Market Probability: when PROBLAY captures both sides of a market, it can remove the sportsbook's built-in pricing margin (vig) and calculate a normalized Market Probability.

FanDuel Implied: when both sides aren't available for that calculation, PROBLAY may instead show FanDuel Implied — the probability implied directly by the FanDuel price, including vig.

Which label you see depends on the pricing data available when that prop was collected — it can vary from one prop to another, and the two are never calculated the same way.

Illustrative example. Not a live prop or a recommendation.

Market Edge is the difference between PROBLAY Probability and the comparison probability shown for the market.

Market Edge is measured in percentage points — never percent return, ROI, profit, or yards.

All three cases are valid outcomes:

A negative Market Edge is valid information, not an error — PROBLAY isn't designed to hide disagreement just because it doesn't favor the selected side. A positive Market Edge doesn't guarantee anything either.

Projection is expressed in the units of the prop. For Receiving Yards, that means yards. For Receptions, that means receptions.

Projection vs. Line is not Market Edge — they answer different questions, in different units:

One describes a number of yards or receptions. The other describes how far apart two probabilities are.

Model Qualified means the prediction cleared PROBLAY's evidence requirements to be displayed. PROBLAY considers safeguards including:

• Quality of the underlying analysis
• Freshness
• Evidence requirements
• Modeled probability within the trusted range

Model Qualified does NOT mean:

• A recommended bet
• A guaranteed winner
• Positive Market Edge
• A sportsbook mistake

A Model Qualified prop can still have negative Market Edge — both are true at once:

Possible together.

Final Pregame is the authoritative pregame checkpoint.

There's also an elapsed freshness indicator, like Updated 34m ago.

• Checkpoint = where we are in the pregame update cycle.
• Updated Xm/h ago = how long since the underlying sportsbook pricing was observed.

Props can change or disappear as new information and pricing arrive.

Illustrative example. Not a live prop or a recommendation.

1. 1

   What's the prop?

   Receiving Yards — Over 64.5.

2. 2

   What does PROBLAY think?

   84% modeled probability.

3. 3

   What does the market think?

   76% comparison probability.

4. 4

   Where do they disagree?

   PROBLAY is 8.0 percentage points higher.

5. 5

   What does the model project?

   78.2 yards versus a 64.5-yard line.

6. 6

   Did it clear the evidence bar?

   Yes — Model Qualified.

7. 7

   How current is it?

   Midweek Update, pricing observed 34 minutes ago.

No single number tells the whole story. PROBLAY is designed to let you read the probability, market comparison, projection, qualification, and freshness together.